What if the American Rescue Plan’s Enhanced Marketplace Subsidies Were Made Permanent? Estimates for 2022

This brief seeks to show the maximum potential impact of the American Rescue Plan Act’s (ARPA) enhanced marketplace subsidies on health insurance coverage by modeling the new subsides as if they were permanent changes.

The authors find the number of individuals uninsured would fall by 4.2 million, or almost 14 percent, in 2022 if the ARPA’s enhanced marketplace subsidies were permanent and consumers, employers, and insurers responded to the new subsidy schedule as if it were fully phased in.